Thinking in Bets

THINKING IN BETS: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts

by Annie Duke

We make countless decisions every day, yet we’re surprisingly bad at evaluating them and repeat mistakes without realizing it. In this book, Annie Duke draws on cognitive psychology and professional poker to show how you can dramatically improve your judgment and outcomes by treating every decision as a bet under uncertainty.

In this summary, you’ll learn:

• Why we consistently misjudge our decisions due to mental biases like resulting, hindsight bias, and self-serving bias.
• How to calibrate your thinking by replacing right/wrong judgments with confidence levels, rewiring thinking habits using the habit loop, and changing how you assess results.
• How to build a truthseeking group with 3 core commitments and 4 rules of engagement that sharpen collective reasoning.
• How to use mental time travel (pre-commitments, backcasting, premortems, and the 10-10-10 method) to plan ahead, interrupt impulses, and learn from experience.

Who should read this:

• Professionals and leaders who make decisions under uncertainty with incomplete information and want a more reliable way to assess what’s actually working.
• Coaches, consultants, and managers who help others improve their judgment, make better calls, and learn from outcomes.