Only 5 out of 1000 big projects are completed on-time, on-budget, and delivers the expected benefits. Why do big projects fail, and what can you do to improve the chances of your personal or professional projects, be it a home renovation or a massive infrastructure development? This book by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner answers these questions. It presents insights for managing successful projects, which are useful for project managers, policymakers, and anyone involved in large-scale projects 🗼. In this How Big Things Get Done summary, you’ll learn the factors behind the successes and failures of mega projects, and how to succeed in project management.
Managing Mega Projects
Megaprojects are large-scale, complex ventures that involve significant investments, long timelines, and multiple stakeholders. Planning and executing for such projects is inherently difficult due to their scale and complexity, which are further compounded by psychological biases and power dynamics between stakeholders.
What determines project management success or failure?
Failed projects often follow a pattern of “Think Fast, Act Slow.” People rush into execution without adequate planning, leading to delays and overruns from unforeseen problems. For example, the California high-speed rail was envisioned to connect Los Angeles and San Francisco with a budget of $33 billion. Yet, after repeated delays and expenditures of >$100 billion, the project remained incomplete as of August 2024.
Successful projects, on the other hand, follow a pattern of “Think Slow, Act Fast.” Careful, detailed planning allows for rapid and efficient execution. For example, the Empire State Building—which was the tallest building in the world of its time at 102 stories—was completed ahead of schedule and 17% under budget.
In our How Big Things Get Done summary, we explain these ideas in 2 parts:
• Why mega projects fail (“Think Fast, Act Slow”); and
• How to succeed at big projects (“Think Slow, Act Fast”).
We’ll briefly outline the concepts in this free book summary, with more details, examples, and practical tips in our complete 14-page summary. bundle.
Part 1: Why Big Projects Fail
The Iron Law of MegaProjects 📜
The authors’ research of thousands of projects led to the “Iron Law of Megaprojects”. This states that most large-scale projects (i) exceed their time and budget and (ii) underdeliver on the promised benefits.
Specifically, the authors started with a database of 258 transportation projects, of which only 0.5% of the projects were completed on budget, on time, and delivered the intended benefits (or better). On average, the projects experienced cost overruns of 28%, with rail projects being the worst at 45% over budget.
Similar findings were found when they expanded their research in collaboration with McKinsey. Major IT projects fared even worse, with costs being exceeded by 447% at the extreme.
The same pattern could be found across different sectors and countries, ranging from infrastructure projects (like the Wembley Stadium in the UK or the Berlin Brandenburg Airport in Germany) to IT projects (like healthcare.gov in the US).
Why Are Failure Rates So High for Mega Projects? 🔍
In our complete How Big Things Get Done summary, we break down various factors leading to these dismal statistics. These include:
Inherent Challenges of Large Projects
Due to their sheer scale, complexity, and a host of interdependent variables, mega projects tend to follow “fat-tail distributions” with a higher extreme outcomes like massive cost overruns or catastrophic failures. For example, the Scotland Parliament Building project went nearly 10x over budget, due to unforeseen issues like legal battles and structural problems.
Psychological Factors and Power Dynamics
Leaders also tend to rush prematurely into execution due to:
• Psychological factors such as the commitment fallacy, the What-You-See-Is-All-There-Is (WYSIATI) bias, the optimism bias, and the uniqueness bias.
• Power dynamics such as political agendas and strategic misrepresentation (where stakeholders deliberately distort information to secure approval, funding, or resources for a project).
All of these are explained in detail in our full book summary.
Danger in the Window of Doom
Once a project is underway, it enters the “Window of Doom” where anything can occur. This includes the risk of “black swans”—low-probability, high-impact events like natural disasters or political changes that can derail projects.
Thus, it’s crucial to minimize this window by planning meticulously (thinking slow) and executing swiftly (acting fast), to reduce exposure to risks.
Let’s put these together with a simple visual summary:
Part 2: Managing Successful Projects
Often, we get overconfident and rush into implementation, only to get stuck with unforeseen problems. For big projects, it’s much better to develop a robust plan, test and refine the solutions, take steps to mitigate risks and uncertainties, and then start production. This ensures smooth, efficient execution to minimize the Window of Doom.
In our full How Big Things Get Done summary, we explain how to improve your planning and project management to maximize chances of success, with the following 11 heuristics or keys 💡.
Start with the End in Mind
Start by clarifying your end-goals, then work backward to plan the required steps and address potential pitfalls.
Improve Robustness and Mitigate Risks
Use reference class forecasting (RCF) to improve your forecasts, and prepare for unexpected problems. Find out how in our full summary!
Experimentation and Iterative Testing
Rigorously test and refine plans to address potential issues early and minimize costly mistakes during execution. Learn how this is done with “The Pixar Way” and the 2 strategies you can adopt for experimentation in megaprojects.
Leverage Relevant Experience
Experience is crucial in both project planning and delivery. Learn more about how to hire a “master-builder” and learn from past projects.
Build a Cohesive Team
To move quickly to deliver the project, you need a strong team that’s working cohesively toward a common goal.
Go for Modularity
Break big project down to small, scalable modules (like LEGO blocks) to plan, test, refine, adapt, and scale up more easily. Our complete How Big Things Get Done summary covers detailed steps and examples on how to do just that.
Getting the Most from How Big Things Get Done
Ready to learn more about the obstacles to mega project management, and how to apply the 11 heuristics above for managing successful projects? Get more detailed insights, examples and actionable tips from our full book summary bundle 📚 that includes an infographic, 14-page text summary, and a 28-minute audio summary.
This book is packed with extensive research, actionable insights, real-world examples, and in-depth analyses, covering projects like the Pentagon, Heathrow Airport’s Terminal 5, the Sydney Opera House, and the California High-Speed Rail. You can purchase the book here or their official website for more details and additional case studies,.
Learn more about applying continuous learning to your project planning and execution in The Goal summary. Or, zoom in on IT project management with summaries of The Phoenix Project and The DevOps Handbook.
About the Authors of How Big Things Get Done
How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between was written by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner.
Bent Flyvbjerg is an expert on megaprojects and a Professor of Major Programme Management at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School. He has authored numerous books and articles on the subject, and his work is widely cited in both academia and industry.
Dan Gardner is a journalist, author, and senior fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. He has written extensively on psychology, risk, and decision-making, bringing a unique perspective to the complexities of large-scale project management.
How Big Things Get Done Quotes
“Wherever there are people, there are psychology and power.”
“Projects don’t go wrong so much as they start wrong.”
“Planning requires thinking—and creative, critical, careful thinking is slow.”
“Speed up by slowing down.”
“Projects are not goals in themselves. Projects are how goals are achieved.”
“What sets good planning apart from the rest is…experiri…experiment and experience.”
“Try, learn, again. Whatever the project or the technology, it’s the most effective path to a plan that delivers.”
“Planning is a safe harbor. Delivery is venturing across the storm-tossed seas.”
“The success of any project depends on getting the team right.”
Click here to download the full infographic & summary
